<![CDATA[The Supercycle: Market Aggregates]]>https://supercycle.blog/s/market-aggregateshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MIkC!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F85246fc1-ca37-445c-9935-90ab2fed7bda_228x228.pngThe Supercycle: Market Aggregateshttps://supercycle.blog/s/market-aggregatesSubstackThu, 04 Jun 2026 17:30:39 GMT<![CDATA[Texas Senate]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/texas-senatehttps://supercycle.blog/p/texas-senateSun, 31 May 2026 12:15:55 GMTEach market’s bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

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]]><![CDATA[California Gubernatorial Primary]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/california-gubernatorial-primaryhttps://supercycle.blog/p/california-gubernatorial-primaryTue, 26 May 2026 20:54:03 GMTProbabilities of advancing from CA's June 2 top-two gubernatorial primary to the general election. Each market’s bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~200%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

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]]><![CDATA[NYC Mayor]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/nyc-mayorhttps://supercycle.blog/p/nyc-mayorMon, 07 Jul 2025 16:01:34 GMT

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]]><![CDATA[NYC Democratic Mayoral Nominee]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/nyc-democratic-mayoral-nomineehttps://supercycle.blog/p/nyc-democratic-mayoral-nomineeWed, 11 Jun 2025 15:06:46 GMT

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]]><![CDATA[NBA Championship]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/nba-champsionshiphttps://supercycle.blog/p/nba-champsionshipWed, 04 Jun 2025 16:30:42 GMT

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]]><![CDATA[Recession Tracker]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/recession-trackerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/recession-trackerFri, 11 Apr 2025 16:28:21 GMTWelcome to our most dispiriting market aggregate yet!

We’re starting off with the binary matter of whether the U.S. will experience 2 consecutive quarters of negative real economic growth in 2025, but…

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]]><![CDATA[Next Canadian Prime Minister]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/next-canadian-prime-ministerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/next-canadian-prime-ministerThu, 10 Apr 2025 12:48:17 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Big Game]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/the-big-gamehttps://supercycle.blog/p/the-big-gameSat, 18 Jan 2025 11:55:30 GMTReal-time aggregate data is drawn from Polymarket, Crypto.com, Betfair, and Kalshi.

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]]><![CDATA[Speaker of the House]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/speaker-of-the-househttps://supercycle.blog/p/speaker-of-the-houseThu, 19 Dec 2024 23:10:29 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[U.S. Cabinet]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/us-cabinethttps://supercycle.blog/p/us-cabinetSat, 16 Nov 2024 15:53:38 GMTAnyone who was in the prediction market world back in late 2016 and early 2017 remembers (whether with fondness or horror) the frenetic markets tied to Trump’s Apprentice-style senior staffing decisi…

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]]><![CDATA[Senate Majority Leader]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/senate-majority-leaderhttps://supercycle.blog/p/senate-majority-leaderMon, 11 Nov 2024 19:10:17 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[U.S. Presidential Winner]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/presidential-winnerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/presidential-winnerSun, 20 Oct 2024 17:15:00 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[House Majority Winner]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/house-majority-winnerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/house-majority-winnerSat, 19 Oct 2024 18:00:00 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[PA Presidential Winner]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/pa-presidential-winnerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/pa-presidential-winnerFri, 18 Oct 2024 18:34:00 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[MI Presidential Winner]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/mi-presidential-winnerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/mi-presidential-winnerFri, 18 Oct 2024 18:33:00 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[Senate Majority Winner]]>https://supercycle.blog/p/senate-majority-winnerhttps://supercycle.blog/p/senate-majority-winnerTue, 08 Oct 2024 12:22:00 GMT Read more

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