Michigan Senate Democratic Primary

The finest indicator of who will win tomorrow’s Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate primary.

Probabilities of winning Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary. Each venue’s bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

See all data, in prettier, interactive format.

The market signal has consolidated sharply around Abdul El-Sayed, with Haley Stevens still the main alternative and the remaining listed candidates mostly reduced to residual probabilities. The Supercycle line combines Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Manifold, normalizing each platform at the venue level before applying our platform-quality and liquidity weights.

Final statewide polls close at 9:00 p.m. ET on August 4, 2026. The hosted chart page will continue updating through the close and can be used as the live interactive version of the charts above.