NC-11 House Election

The finest indicator of which party will win North Carolina's 11th Congressional District.

Rep. Chuck Edwards’s sudden withdrawal just turned NC-11 into one of the most interesting midterm races. Edwards dropped out in the wake of the House Ethics Committee recommending censure over alleged inappropriate conduct toward young female staffers. Democrat Jamie Ager was already (and as of this publication, remains) a narrow favorite to flip the seat blue, but that could all change - in either direction - once the replacement for Edwards gets whispered about, picked, then publicly polled.

Probabilities of winning North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. Each venue’s bid/ask midprices are normalized to a sum of ~100%, then weighted according to platform liquidity and subjective quality factors.

See all data, in prettier, interactive format.