The Future of Prediction Market Media
I’m excited to announce that Bayesian Supercycle is merging with The SuperModel to form The Supercycle.
I’ve really appreciated the support I’ve gotten for my writing thus far, particularly for my interview with Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Noah Zingler-Sternig.
The next step is far more ambitious.
Let me tell you a bit about who we’re going to be merging with.
Flip Pidot has been a pioneer of the prediction market industry for decades. His impressive resume includes political market curation at PredictIt, leading the fight for fair prediction market regulation at the Coalition for Political Forecasting, and founding the American Civics Exchange, which sold OTC swaps to make hedging politics more accessible. More recently, he’s worked on projects such as Polyoptions and The SuperMarket. I also podcasted with him last month.
His Substack, The SuperModel, has been active for two years providing some of the finest quality data analytics on prediction markets, including sharp prediction aggregates on major US elections over past years.
The Supercycle is going to be providing a hub for high-quality prediction market media. In an industry that’s supposed to be dominated by signal, there’s inadvertently been a great deal of noise, as per usual in any faction of X.
In the Information Age, the world is full of noise, and informed signals are limited. Prediction markets cut through some noise, but as we know, the financial incentive of prediction markets results in some bad actors spreading disinformation. Once we isolate down the signal of the prediction market industry, it will create something powerful.
You can expect unique and thoughtful takes on new developments in the industry, hyper-accurate data modeling and analysis, projections for the future, prediction market philosophy, deeply researched interviews, and much more.
If you’re a subscriber to Bayesian Supercycle, you will be automatically imported to The Supercycle’s mailing list. I’ll continue to crosspost new writing of mine on this site, so if you’re a subscriber you may receive posts twice. Our new site will be located at supercycle.blog.
We’d appreciate any feedback or suggestions on how we can provide the most high quality content moving forward. If you have any suggestions, drop them in the comments.
Welcome to The Supercycle.
